Global (7MM) sales for the cystic fibrosis (CF) market are forecast by to grow from $2.1B in 2015 to $7.6B in 2025. The majority of sales are expected to come from the US, which will represent 68% of the market by 2025. The sales growth during the 2015–2025 forecast periods will be primarily driven by the launches of Vertex’s cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulator ivacaftor/tezacaftor.
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The CFTR modulator drug class is expected to grow from 43.3% of total CF drug sales in 2015 to 81.2% of total CF drug sales in 2025. Vertex Pharmaceuticals will continue to dominate the CF drug space as it has two marketed CFTR modulators and is expected to launch third CFTR modulator during the forecast period, fulfilling some of the major unmet needs of the CF population.
Major drivers of the growth of the CF market over the forecast period will include:
· The introduction of the high-priced, disease-modifying drug Orkambi (ivacaftor + lumacaftor) in 2015, followed by the introduction of novel, high-priced, disease-modifying CFTR modulators during the forecast period.
· The continued growth of the number of CF patients due to the overall population growth and continuously increasing life expectancy of CF patients
Major barriers to the growth of the CF market will include:
· The high price of CFTR modulators, which may prevent their reimbursement by local health authorities and health insurance companies.
· The complexity inherent in the pathophysiology and molecular mechanisms involved in the development of CF, which will continue to hinder the development of safe and effective agents for the management of CF.
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