Computer Model Could Help Prevent Avian Flu Pandemic

August 4th, 2005 Public Health

This is a snapshot taken about 60 to 90 days after the first case of an uncontrolled outbreak of transmissible avian flu in people living in Thailand. Red indicates new cases while green indicates areas where the epidemic has finished. The accompanying movie (requires free RealPlayer) shows the spread of infection and recovery over 300 days in Thailand and neighboring countries.Dr. Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London and a scholar at Howard Hughes Medical Institute, headed a study to evaluate feasibility of computer modeling to prevent the pandemic of avian flu. The starting point was a single patient with mutated H5N1 influenza A virus in a rural village in Thailand. To read what it takes to contain the epidemic, go to the news section at Howard Hughes Medical Institute. Very scary stuff.
More info and accompanying video of epidemic model at the National Institute of General Medical Sciences…
Related News: Bird flu moves towards Europe; Flu viruses mix it up.

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